IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Finally Snaps This 12-Year Slump

The U.S. economic expansion is now in its ninth year, but American households finally are convinced it's for real.

XFor the first time since early 2005, the IBD/TIPP Poll has now recorded positive economic sentiment for 12 months running.

In September, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index gained nine-tenths of a point to reach a six-month high of 53.4. The index remained above the neutral 50 level, continuing a run of optimistic readings that began in October 2016.

Spirits haven't returned to February's 12-year high of 56.4, when President Trump was in his honeymoon period and prospects for huge tax cuts and a trillion-dollar boost in infrastructure spending looked brighter. Yet Americans' outlook for their personal finances is better than at any time since 2004, save for a few months earlier this year.

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IBD'S TAKE: Despite a stock slump on Tuesday after North Korea's increasingly dangerous signals, the market remains in an uptrend. On Aug. 22, IBD shifted its market trend gauge to "confirmed uptrend" from "uptrend under pressure," the equivalent of a flashing yellow light turning green. Read IBD's The Big Picture column each day to stay on top of the market direction, a key indicator that lets you know when you can be aggressive and when you should move to the sidelines.


The Economic Optimism Index is a composite of three major subindexes that track views of near-term economic prospects, the outlook for personal finances over the coming six months, and views of how well government economic policies are working.

The gauge of the six-month economic outlook added 1.2 points to 51.1, perking up after two months in modestly pessimistic territory.

Meanwhile, the six-month personal financial outlook index climbed 1.8 points to 62.0, just below February's 12-year high of 62.8.

The measure of confidence in federal economic policies dipped two-tenths of a point to 47.1. The index had crept into optimistic territory for the first time in a decade in February, before the GOP spent months on trying to repeal and replace ObamaCare with nothing to show for it.

The poll, which included 905 respondents, was conducted Aug. 23-Aug. 31.

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